[05SOFIA2123] BULGARIA: BASING PROSPECTS ON TRACK DESPITE PUBLIC SKEPTICISM

Published by Wikileaks & Bivol.bg

 date: 12/30/2005 10:31 refid: 05SOFIA2123 origin: Embassy Sofia classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 05SOFIA2025 header: This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.   C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 002123    SIPDIS    SIPDIS    STATE FOR EUR AND PM - AMBASSADOR LOFTIS  OSD FOR PETE NAJERA AND LESLEY YOUNG    E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2015  TAGS: MARR, PGOV, PREL, KPAO, BU, RU  SUBJECT: BULGARIA: BASING PROSPECTS ON TRACK DESPITE PUBLIC  SKEPTICISM    REF: SOFIA 2025    Classified By: CDA Jeffrey Levine for reasons 1.4 (a) and (d).    1.(C) SUMMARY.  The government of Bulgaria remains committed  to concluding a shared basing agreement with the U.S. despite  widespread public opposition.  As previous Bulgarian  governments have done on issues such as Iraq and Kosovo, this  government is prepared to lead public opinion rather than  follow.  The extreme nationalist Ataka party, with suspected  Russian advice and assistance, has negatively influenced  press coverage of the negotiations, but its calls for a  referendum have failed to gain traction.  Given the relative  dearth of anti-American sentiment in Bulgaria, we believe the  best antidote to public skepticism is the rapid conclusion of  an agreement.  END SUMMARY.    2. (C) According to recent U.S.-sponsored public opinion  data, 69 percent of Bulgarians disapprove of the U.S.  military using military bases in Bezmer and Novo Selo.  However, on December 8, two days after Secretary Rice signed  a basing agreement with Romania, the MFA's official  spokesman, Dimitar Tsanchev, issued the following  announcement:    "Negotiations on the deployment of joint Bulgarian-U.S.  military installations continue, and at this stage there are  no serious problems hindering the talks.  An agreement is  expected to be reached in the near future taking into  consideration the countries' common interests."    On December 27, an MFA official privately confirmed that we  are "very close to an agreement on the Status of Forces  package."    3. (C) The willingness of Bulgaria's political leadership to  move ahead in the face of public opposition is a phenomenon  we have observed before.  In 1999, there was widespread and  vocal public opposition to the Kostov government's decision  to grant blanket overflight clearance to U.S. aircraft  engaged in military operations against neighboring  Yugoslavia.  In 2003, Parliament approved the deployment of  an infantry battalion to Iraq despite polls showing that only  eight percent of Bulgarians fully supported participation.  Even more telling was the GOB's determination to continue its  participation in the coalition for two years despite  suffering 13 killed and 80 wounded.  The Socialist-led  government elected last summer continues to buck public  opinion, first by reneging on its pledge to immediately  withdraw the infantry battalion from Iraq and then by  all-but-officially accepting the follow-on mission favored by  the U.S. military.  We expect a formal decision on the Iraq  follow-on mission as soon as CENTCOM and the Bulgarian  military agree on the technical terms of reference.    4. (C) The extreme nationalist party Ataka is a leading  critic of the basing negotiations (reftel).  Although Ataka  has not had a significant impact to date, its hard-line  stance puts pressure on the Bulgarian Socialist Party, whose  core electorate shares many of the same views on foreign  policy.  Ataka's calls for a national referendum on the  basing agreements have failed to gain traction, and it  remains on the fringes of the political scene.  However,  there are indications that the Russian embassy in Sofia may  be supporting Ataka and encouraging negative press coverage  of the basing issue.  The Russian CHOD also received  substantial local press coverage in early December when he  raised the prospect of U.S. missile defenses in Bulgaria  (sic) and said, "God forbid if downed foreign missiles fell  on the Kozloduy nuclear power plant" in Bulgaria.  Baluevski  also reportedly said he was "astounded" that the U.S. was not  going to pay rent for the use of Bulgarian bases since this  was "the normal practice around the world."    5. (C) COMMENT: While the GOB has a track record of taking  controversial foreign policy decisions in the face of public  opposition, the negative poll numbers highlight the need for  a sustained public diplomacy effort on our part.  In  November, during the last bilateral negotiating session, we  arranged television and print interviews with the lead U.S.  negotiator, Ambassador Robert Loftis. Perhaps more  importantly, we successfully urged a number of Bulgarian  opinion leaders from the Left side of the political spectrum  -- where opposition is most concentrated -- to speak out in  support of the basing agreements.  Our Public Affairs section  has commissioned a reputable polling agency to conduct focus  groups to pinpoint Bulgarians' specific concerns.  And in an  effort to reach a wider audience, we are facilitating a visit  by a Bulgarian television crew to a U.S. military base in  Western Europe to show the Bulgarian public what a U.S.  military presence looks like and how the local population  interacts with American service members.  Our most effective  means of countering Ataka and its sponsors, however, will be  the presence of U.S. boots on the ground in Bulgaria.  Given  the absence of strong underlying anti-American sentiment, we  believe public attitudes will change once the agreements are  signed and our troops begin deploying here.    LEVINE 

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